Christchurch leads resurgence in residential property confidence nationally – CBRE survey

A new survey of CBRE residential valuers nationwide shows Canterbury has the strongest residential property market confidence of New Zealand’s regional centres, with healthy demand trends and expectations of price growth over the next year.

CBRE’s Q3 2025 Residential Valuer Insights survey, which drew on responses from CBRE valuers from Whangārei to Invercargill, shows a stabilising market nationally alongside some notable regional contrasts, with Canterbury at the front of the recovery curve.

Victoria Murdoch, Southern Residential Valuation Manager, said CBRE’s predictions about market recovery a year ago have played out, with Canterbury and provincial centres strengthening on both demand and value growth predictions. In contrast, sentiment in Auckland and Wellington remains relatively soft.

“Sales activity in Canterbury has been resilient through the downturn and the latest survey confirms the wave of optimism the city’s property market has been riding as we emerge from the market trough,” she said.

“The report findings are consistent with the higher levels of confidence we have observed in our market compared with the other main centres. We’re seeing moderate to strong demand across Canterbury, consistent enquiry levels and a notable lift in confidence that values will edge higher over the next 12 months.”

Around three quarters of Canterbury respondents reported a moderate/balanced demand market, with a quarter reporting a strong (sellers’) market. This contrasts with Auckland, where all respondents reported a soft (buyers’) market; and Wellington, where around 80% of respondents reported a soft market and 20% reported a balanced market.

When surveyed on value growth expectations, around 70% of Canterbury respondents expected house prices to increase by up to 5% over the next year. The remainder expected prices to increase by 5% to 10%.

In contrast, most (70%) of Auckland respondents expected prices to increase by up to 5% while the remainder expected prices to remain stable. All Wellington respondents expected prices to remain stable. 

Christchurch is ahead of Auckland and Wellington in terms of average house price growth over the past year (to August 2025), recording a 2.3% increase. Auckland prices decreased by 0.7%, while Wellington decreased by 4%, according to OneRoof and Valocity.

Bridget Dunbar, Registered Valuer at CBRE Christchurch, said the city’s positive position reflects both affordability relative to the other main centres and a set of strong market drivers.

“Canterbury’s healthy economic fundamentals are helping our region lead the next phase of recovery. The reducing cost of debt is encouraging first home buyers and giving confidence to those who are refinancing to buy or renovate. The construction sector is also busy with developers showing confidence in building at scale, which we haven’t seen for the past few years.”

However, despite interest rate decreases, many homeowners in Canterbury and around the country are still impacted by the high cost of living; with concerns around where mortgage rates will land and how long they will stay there before rising again front of mind for many buyers, she added.

Nick Taylor, CBRE Registered Valuer, said alongside an active first home buyer market, the higher value end (over $3m) is also selling well, with buyers in this sector less impacted by the cost of debt.

“The higher value end of the market has remained robust through the downturn and is expected to continue to perform, with a strong buyer base actively purchasing if they find the right opportunities in this sector.”

Nationally, winter has slowed demand in many markets, and expectations are for demand to hold or rise as interest rates continue to ease.

Tamba Carleton, Research Director at CBRE, said improving borrowing conditions are starting to flow through sentiment indicators.

“Declining interest rates are supporting enquiry and the absence of valuers expecting price falls over the next 12 months marks a significant change in sentiment from earlier this year.”

Valuers’ optimism about house price growth declined in the first two quarters of this year, however in Q3 most regions expected either stable or low value growth over the next 12 months.

The national results also showed a big jump in the proportion of valuers who expect growth in listing supply – from 33% last quarter to 66%, said Carleton.

“Although the usual short term springtime lift in listing volumes is expected, it appears further growth is also anticipated beyond this, with most valuers predicting the supply of properties for sale in their region to increase over the next year.”

Alongside Canterbury, the other markets with the highest levels of confidence around demand and future value growth are Waikato and Southland, most likely reflecting the strong primary industries sector benefiting the two farming-led regions, she said.
Photo Source: ChristchurchNZ Toolkit